Merenungsang Ao
HOD Assistant professor, St. John College Dimapur
The purpose of this article is not to create panic among the readers, but to share helpful precautionary information. El Niño a natural occurring climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It was first recognised by Peruvian fisherman off the coast of Peru as the appearance of unusually warm water. An early recorded mentioned of the term “El Niño” (little boy) in Spanish, to refer to climate occurred in 1892, when Captain Camilo Carrillo told the geographical society congress in Lima that Peruvian sailors named warm south-flowing current “El Niño” because it was most noticeable around Christmas. Originally, the term “El Niño” applied to an annual weak warm ocean current that ran southwards along the coast of Peru and Ecuador at about Christmas time.
Recent media coverage, along with commentary analysis from various contributors within the scientific community, has increasingly drawn attention to the potential development of a strong El Niño event later this year. This growing focus has led to heightened expectations regarding the possibility of widespread and significant climate impacts across different regions of the world. Scientists and climate experts are closely monitoring oceanic and atmospheric conditions, as such events are often associated with disruptions to typical weather patterns including altered rainfall distribution, increased likelihood of droughts in some areas and flooding in others.
A substantial portion of this reporting is based on seasonal forecasting data produced by leading international climate institutions. Notably, forecasts released in March and April 2026 by the European Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) have played an important role in shaping current expectations. In addition, insights from the multi-system ensemble developed under the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) have further reinforced these projections. These advanced forecasting systems integrate a wide range of climate models and observational data, allowing scientists to assess the likelihood of different climate scenarios with greater confidence.
Together, the outputs from these systems indicate that oceanic and atmospheric conditions may be aligning in a way that is conducive to the onset and development of a mega El Niño event. While uncertainties remain, the convergence of evidence from multiple forecasting approaches has strengthened the overall assessment that such a development is increasingly plausible. As a result, researchers, policymakers and stakeholders are paying close attention to updates in the coming months, as the evolution of these conditions could have far-reaching implications for agriculture, water resources, ecosystem and disaster preparedness efforts worldwide.
Previous research has shown that the 1877-1878 El Niño resulted in great famine events around the world. However, the strength and statistical significance of this El Niño event have not been fully addressed, largely due to the lack of data. The Great Famine of 1876-1878 in India during the British Rule precipitated by an intense drought resulting in crop failure in the Deccan Plateau. This was part of a larger pattern of drought and crop failure across India, China, South America and parts of Africa caused by an interplay between a strong El Niño and an active Indian Ocean Dipole that led to between 19 and 50 million deaths.
With the severity is still unclear, most major climate agencies agree that El Niño is likely to form around mid 2026 (May-July). The probability is roughly 60-70% for it to develop and continue through the rest of 2026. The weather patterns around the world shall be affected when there are weak monsoons and intense heatwaves. As the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the USA issued its latest advisory in April 2026.
What El Niño could mean for India?
India is particularly sensitive to the effects of El Niño because of its strong influence on the country’s monsoon system. The southwest monsoon is a critical climatic phenomenon, providing the majority of annual rainfall and sustaining agriculture, water resources and livelihoods across the nation. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) the 2026 southwest monsoon is expected to be below normal, projected at around 92% of the long-period average. While this may seem like a modest decline, even slight deviations can have far-reaching consequences.
El Niño events are typically associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India. This often results not only in reduced precipitation but also in an uneven distribution of rainfall. Instead of consistent seasonal rains, regions may experience prolonged dry spells interrupted by short, intense bursts of rain. Such irregular patterns can be highly disruptive, particularly for agriculture, which depends heavily on timely and adequate rainfall.
The agricultural sector, which supports a significant portion of India’s population, is especially vulnerable during El Niño years. Reduced and drastic rainfall can lead to lower crop yields, increased dependence on irrigation and higher input costs for farmers. As a result, rural incomes may decline, affecting overall economic stability. Given that a large share of India’s farming is rain-fed, the impact of even a small shortfall in monsoon rainfall can be substantial, influencing food production, inflation and broader economic growth.
In conclusion, the relationship between El Niño and the Indian monsoon highlight the delicate balance of climatic factors that sustain the country’s economy. A below – normal monsoon, as forecast for 2026, underscores the need for preparedness and adaptive strategies to mitigate potential adverse effects on agriculture and livelihoods.
