Monalisa Tase and Monojit Das
US-Brokered Armenia-Azerbaijan Accord: A Connectivity Hedge for India
On August 8, 2025, the U.S. White House announced a fragile but consequential accord between Armenia and Azerbaijan, backed and facilitated by former President Donald Trump. The agreement involves the creation of the Zangezur transit link a strategic overland route to connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave and onward to Central Asia and Europe. Washington’s investment in infrastructure and security guarantees has, for the first time, edged Russia aside in the South Caucasus, prompting Iranian apprehensions about encirclement. For India, this development poses both a challenge and an opportunity. While a stabilised east-west corridor may divert trade away from north-south routes such as the INSTC via Iran and Chabahar, it also opens a window for high-value cargo routing and energy diversification via Azerbaijan. New Delhi would be wise to accelerate infrastructure projects like INSTC and Chabahar while exploring niche logistics partnerships in the emerging Caucasus corridor. This dual-track hedging approach ensures India maintains strategic autonomy and maximises connectivity, even as competition and alignments shift in Eurasia.
Trump–Putin in Alaska: Process Over Progress, Pragmatic Gains for India
The late typified diplomatic theatre high on optics, low on outcome. While no ceasefire or peace deal emerged, both leaders hinted at elevating future negotiations, with Putin expressing cautious optimism about an eventual resolution in Ukraine. Europe welcomed the absence of a grand bargain but remains wary of potentially growing U.S.- Russia alignment. The summit witnesses a gap between the rhetoric and reality, which is always great. However, Russian President return to the global diplomacy was a milestone. For India, the summit’s significance lies in the subtle reduction of sanctions volatility and the opening of a narrow avenue for Arctic cooperation, which could nudge insurers and shipping interests to reassess the viability of the Northern Sea Route. In turn, this could exert marginal downward pressure on India’s freight and insurance costs. The summit also underscores India’s diplomatic balancing act: maintaining ties with both the U.S. and Russia, safeguarding energy and defence logistics, and preparing for a shifting European posture, especially as EU countries face a challenging environment marked by moderate economic growth, ongoing geopolitical risks, and the need to assert strategic independence amidst uncertain U.S. strategic direction. In this context, India’s measured approach to the Alaska summit becomes a diplomatic asset, demonstrating India's capability to lead the Global South through complex geopolitical transitions while maintaining independence from major power blocs.
Pakistan’s Nuclear Posturing: Why India Must Answer with Precision, Not Panic
Pakistan’s elevation of Army Chief Asim Munir to Field Marshal might come as a stress for its own people in the coming times, followed by his provocative remarks claiming that any existential threat to Pakistan would result in “taking half the world down” constitutes a hallmark of nuclear coercion intended to compensate for conventional asymmetry. While Islamabad has since attempted to downplay or refute the statements, the episode reinforces concerns about nuclear brinksmanship under stress. India must respond by bolstering readiness and deterrence quietly and credibly, without engaging in reciprocal rhetoric. Instead, Delhi should leverage forensic, evidence-based counterterrorism communication with international partners, highlighting cross-border terror networks and financial links. Simultaneously, India should enhance intelligence sharing and legal mechanisms to systematically isolate Pakistan’s strategic posturing. By combining missile readiness, attribution, and coalition-building, India can demonstrate resolve and deterrence without inflaming the nuclear narrative.
SCO Summit and Africa: Building Cooperative Platforms Amid Great-Power Frictions
As the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation gathers in Tianjin (31 August – 1 September) with leaders including Xi, Putin, and Modi in attendance, India has an opening to institutionalize progress on crisis prevention, particularly via de-risking mechanisms along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), such as new hotlines, working-level protocols, and dialogue calendars. Simultaneously, Africa stands out as a testing nation where India, China, and Russia could demonstrate a pilot project as cooperative frameworks by leveraging their distinct strengths rather than falling into zero-sum competition. Each country brings complementary capabilities: India's trusted digital public infrastructure and pharmaceutical delivery, China's construction financing and manufacturing, and Russia's energy/fertilizer exports. Pilot projects in health supply chains, agri-value corridors, and interoperable digital payments in AU-endorsed markets could become demonstration nodes of “tri-lateral co-production,” reducing delivery risk, warding off "debt trap" optics, and projecting a multipolar goodwill model. Delhi’s unique strength, demand-driven and cost-conscious delivery if paired with transparent and inclusive structures, can showcase a new dimension of India’s soft power and strategic leadership on the global stage.
Conclusion: Strategic Posture for India in September 2025
As the global order continues to evolve, India finds itself at a pivotal juncture where multiple strands of international politics converge to shape its future role. This month’s developments underscore the complex transitions shaping global politics: The Trump-mediated Armenia–Azerbaijan agreement, while stabilizing a volatile region, also signals how external powers are reclaiming the role of peacemakers, leaving India to carefully navigate its balancing act between historical ties with Russia, partnerships with the West, and aspirations for leadership in the Global South. Similarly, the unprecedented Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska underscores a shift in U.S.-Russia dynamics that could either recalibrate great power competition or fragment the already fragile security order; for India, this opens both opportunities and risks, as it must sustain its multi-alignment policy without being perceived as taking sides. On the other hand, Pakistan’s military leadership resorting to nuclear brinkmanship reflects the persisting instability in India’s immediate neighbourhood, demanding constant vigilance, credible deterrence, and calibrated diplomacy. The recently concluded SCO Summit, bringing India, China, and Russia into the same room presents an unusual window where adversarial and cooperative instincts coexist. For India, the stakes are particularly high: finding common ground with China despite the border deadlock, maintaining defence and energy synergies with Russia, and shaping multilateral agendas that resonate with the Global South. Amid these shifts, the geography of competition and cooperation is no longer confined to Eurasia alone but increasingly extends to new theatres of influence, where Africa stands out as the next frontier. If Africa indeed emerges as the converging ground for cooperative approaches among these three powers, India must ensure it does not merely participate but leads in framing narratives of development, security, and connectivity. Looking ahead, New Delhi’s path lies in leveraging its diplomatic agility balancing deterrence with dialogue, partnership with competition, and regional leadership with global aspirations so that it remains not just a participant in unfolding geopolitics but a decisive shaper of the new world order.
Monalisa Tase is Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Nagaland University.
Dr Monojit Das is an Independent Geopolitical Analyst and Honorary Advisor to the Editorial Board of IADN (Indian Aerospace and Defence News).
